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Elections are now in progress for general elections in Holland, with current polling data suggesting that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again emerge victorious, though analysts suggest the party stands little chance of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which in the last election achieved a shock first-place finish and formed a multi-party right-leaning government that lasted barely a year, is currently slightly leading in surveys and is projected to secure between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-seat parliament.

Nevertheless, PVV's popularity has declined since 2023, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have stated they will not entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, and who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in June over disagreements concerning his radical anti-refugee plans.

Major Parties and Projections

Following a election period dominated by issues such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the nation's acute housing crisis, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, expected to gain between 22 and 26 seats.

Also performing well is the centrist D66, projected to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to more than double its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the PVV, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with several experiencing significant losses.

Voting Process and Political Division

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just 0.67% of the national vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Of the 27 parties participating in the vote – including parties for the over-50s, youth parties, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and for sport – up to 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This high degree of division means that no one party is expected to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by coalitions – typically composed of several groups in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the his party becomes the biggest group yet is shut out of government. However, opponents and experts say that winning the most seats does not assure a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

While the final outcome is uncertain and coalition talks could take several months, analysts suggest that following the most extreme government in recent memory, the future government is expected to be a inclusive coalition led by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, opened at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate post-voting survey is expected shortly after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will test possible coalitions that could secure enough support in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must undergo a confidence vote in parliament before assuming power.