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The possibility of the American media conglomerate taking over ITV has raised apprehensions about the consequences on the UK's public service broadcasting, a situation that Channel 4’s new chief executive, moving from a senior post at Sky, will be acutely aware of.

Sky’s commercial director, Priya Dogra, will now be expected to lead the charge to oppose her ex-company's acquisition bid to defend Channel 4.

The envisaged merger of Sky and ITV’s broadcasting operation would leave Channel 4 a significantly weaker competitor in the realm of TV and digital ad sales, fueling discussion of the need to reconsider some form of partnership with the BBC for future viability.

Immediate Alarm: The Future of News

However, it is the likely impacts on the future of news provision that are causing the most urgent concern for many within the television industry.

The surprise news last month that Comcast, which controls assets including Universal Studios and purchased Rupert Murdoch’s Sky for £30bn in 2018, is financially rational. Traditional broadcasters are facing a profound survival challenge as audiences and revenues continue to swiftly shift to global digital players such as Meta, Google, Amazon, and Netflix.

“Comcast’s move for ITV is causing trepidation among media watchers, with especial focus for news provision.”

However, the potential £1.6bn takeover of ITV’s television business and streaming service, which would end 70 years of autonomy, is full of regulatory, political, and competition issues.

Overnight, Comcast would control Sky News and ITV News—including its far-reaching regional news operation—and become the biggest shareholder in ITN, which produces news for ITV, Channel 4, and Channel 5.

While Comcast’s 40% stake in ITN would not be a majority holding—other shareholders include the owner of the Daily Mail, Thomson Reuters, and Informa—it would still be significantly influential in the news output of most of the main commercial broadcasters.

“If a deal materialises, the fate of ITN is an pivotal one that will focus minds politically,” says one senior TV executive. “Effectively, they will be involved in the news output of all the biggest non-BBC channels.”

Financial Commitments and Regulatory Scrutiny

Comcast promised to keep funding Sky News for a decade, upping its funding annually in line with inflation, as part of its 2018 takeover of Sky. As that obligation draws closer to expiring, concerns have been raised about whether the US company will continue to wholly support Sky News, which has an annual budget of £100m but is thought to make losses of as much as £80m.

It is understood that any deal to buy ITV would include guarantees not to seek permission from media regulator Ofcom to alter the conditions of its public service broadcast licence, which includes commitments to national and regional news.

“There are clearly questions about plurality,” says Stewart Puvis, a former ITN chief executive. “Theoretically, Comcast could, say, merge Sky and ITV News and use its position as a 40% shareholder in ITN to assert control... I would hope Comcast understand ways of solving these problems.”

An Endangered Model

British TV executives have previously highlighted the risk posed to the UK’s system of public service broadcasters (PSBs) by large parts of the industry being taken over by US corporations.

Recently, Ofcom published a report warning that public service television, such as news provision and UK-focused content, risks becoming an “at-risk model” as viewers migrate to US online platforms and streamers.

The watchdog also revealed data showing that YouTube had overtaken ITV to become the UK’s second most-watched media service, behind only the BBC, with it and Netflix now the two most popular first TV destinations among young people.

The Need for Unity

There are those who believe that a Sky takeover of ITV, against the context of the viewer shift to mostly US digital companies, indicates the need for closer collaboration between the UK’s biggest broadcasters.

“The UK must have its own part of mass media which isn’t US controlled,” says a second broadcasting executive. “It’s a national strategic imperative. I think the government needs to work out how the boards of the PSBs have a new part to their remits that requires them to collaborate.”

Given that advertisers follow eyeballs, a combination of Sky and ITV could create a British TV and streaming giant, with the two companies’ sales houses controlling a dominant share of total ad spend on traditional TV and broadcasters’ streaming services.

The CMA's Role

Any deal will trigger an investigation by the UK competition watchdog. Sky is hoping the regulator will broaden the definition of the ad market to include the impact of giants like YouTube and Facebook.

“I think it will get passed,” says Alex DeGroote, a media analyst. “Comcast will do everything it can to say it will maintain the PSB status quo... But you don’t buy to ultimately keep everything the same. ITV plus Sky would give them a hugely dominant position in the TV ad market.”

The Precarious Position of Channel 4 and the BBC

Channel 4, which relies on advertising for the vast majority of its income, now faces a diminished BBC as a potential partner and a formidable commercial threat from a combined Sky-ITV.

“We may at some point end up in that situation because of the deep cumulative cuts to the BBC’s funding and because Channel 4, too, has a core budgetary challenge,” says Patrick Barwise, an emeritus professor at London Business School. “Channel 4 has repeatedly outperformed forecasts, but that is just delaying the inevitable. It’s now beginning to reach its limits.”

The ongoing saga emphasises a larger question for British media: how to preserve a independent voice and a diverse public service ecosystem in an increasingly globalised and digitally dominated landscape.